About

This package contains a simple function to

Built with

• vanilla javascript
• Best readme template
• lerna

Getting started

Installation

npm install @forecasting/laplace

Usage

import {
  laplace
} from "@forecasting/laplace";


// Chance of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the next 30 days
let num_past_successes = 1 // one previous ceasefire
let num_past_trials = 608 // 638 since the start of the war - 30 days of previous ceasefire 
let num_future_trials = 30 // opportunities for a not ceasefire => ceasefire transition

let p = laplace(num_past_successes, num_past_trials, num_future_trials)
if (p == -1) {
  console.log("Error in some of the inputs")
} else {
  console.log("Probability per Laplace's rule of succession: ", p )
}

Roadmap

• [x] validate probability (must be 0<= p <=1)
• [x] Decide on a return type if probabilities are not validated (-1? / null?)
• [x] Write wrapper code for validation
• [x] Validate that array.length > 0
• [ ] add weighting? by recency?
• [ ] filter outliers?