polymarket-arb

Claude-powered Polymarket arbitrage bot. Monitors BTC/ETH price feeds, detects 30-second momentum signals, finds matching Polymarket contracts expiring within 20 minutes, and uses Claude AI to assess each trade opportunity before entering.

How it works

1. Price feeds — connects to Binance WebSocket (with Coinbase fallback on 451 geo-block) for real-time BTC/ETH prices
2. Signal detection — fires when |30s momentum| > 0.35%
3. Contract discovery — queries Polymarket GraphQL for open BTC/ETH up/down contracts expiring within 20 minutes
4. Claude analysis — spawns claude --print subprocess with signal + contract data to get confidence score, Kelly fraction, and reasoning
5. Trade entry — only enters if Claude confidence > 0.65; sizes position using Kelly Criterion (capped at 10%)
6. Risk management — daily loss limit -20%, total drawdown kill switch -40%

Prerequisites

• claude CLI installed and authenticated:

  npm install -g @anthropic-ai/claude-code
  claude   # run once to authenticate
  claude --version  # verify

• No API key needed — uses your existing Claude Code session

Installation

npm install -g @gonzih/polymarket-arb

Usage

# Paper trading (default, safe)
polymarket-arb --paper

# Live trading
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=... POLYMARKET_SECRET=... polymarket-arb --live

Environment variables

| Variable | Required | Default | Description | |----------|----------|---------|-------------| | POLYMARKET_API_KEY | Live only | — | Polymarket CLOB API key | | POLYMARKET_SECRET | Live only | — | Polymarket API secret | | PAPER_MODE | No | true | Set false for live trading | | LOG_DIR | No | ~/.polymarket-arb | Log directory | | CLAUDE_CODE_OAUTH_TOKEN | Docker only | — | Claude OAuth token (same one used by cc-agent/cc-tg). Required in Docker; optional on host if already authenticated via claude CLI. |

Logs

Structured JSON logs written to ~/.polymarket-arb/polymarket-arb.log. Each line is a JSON object with timestamp, level, and event-specific fields.

macOS daemon (launchd)

A launchd plist is included (com.polymarket-arb.plist). Install:

# Edit REPLACE_ME with your API key first
cp com.polymarket-arb.plist ~/Library/LaunchAgents/
launchctl load ~/Library/LaunchAgents/com.polymarket-arb.plist

Architecture

src/
  index.ts      — CLI entry point
  feeds.ts      — Binance + Coinbase WebSocket managers
  signal.ts     — 30s momentum calculation
  polymarket.ts — GraphQL contract discovery + CLOB order placement
  claude.ts     — claude CLI subprocess integration, trade analysis
  kelly.ts      — Kelly Criterion position sizing, risk limits
  logger.ts     — Structured JSON logging
  daemon.ts     — Main bot loop, kill switch logic

License

MIT