SimpleFunctions CLI — Kalshi & Polymarket Trading Bot

AI-powered prediction market trading bot and analysis CLI for Kalshi and Polymarket. Scans 130,000+ markets, detects mispricings with causal thesis models, backtests strategies, makes markets with an automated quote engine, and executes trades — all from the terminal.

npm i -g @spfunctions/cli
sf setup

What It Does

| Capability | Command | What other tools need | |---|---|---| | Scan 130K markets across Kalshi + Polymarket | sf scan "topic" | Separate API clients for each venue | | Screen by 6 quantitative indicators (IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, tau) | sf screen --iy-min 200 --tau-max 30 | Custom scripts, no standard indicators | | Real-time Level 2 orderbook with depth + slippage | sf book TICKER | Kalshi WebSocket + custom parsing | | Backtest entry/stop/TP strategies on historical data | sf backtest TICKER --entry-below 35 --stop 20 --tp 60 | Build your own backtester | | Causal thesis → probability → edge detection | sf create "thesis" → sf edges | Nothing comparable | | What-if scenario analysis on causal tree nodes | sf whatif ID --set "n1=0.9" | Manual spreadsheets | | Automated market making with inventory management | sf quoteengine start | Custom HFT infrastructure | | Intent-based order execution with triggers | sf intent buy TICKER 10 --trigger below:28 | Manual order placement | | 24/7 autonomous monitoring (news + X + LLM eval) | sf heartbeat ID | Multiple tools stitched together | | Real-time world state for AI agents (~800 tokens) | sf world | No equivalent |

Quick Start

# Search for markets
sf scan "fed rate cuts 2026"

# Get the world state (what's happening right now)
sf world

# Inspect an orderbook
sf book KXCPI-26APR-T0.4

# Screen for high implied yield, tight spread markets
sf screen --iy-min 300 --las-max 0.03

# Backtest a strategy
sf backtest KXRECSSNBER-26 --entry-below 30 --stop 10 --tp 50

# Get AI-generated trade ideas
sf ideas

Trading Bot Features

Thesis-Driven Edge Detection

Unlike simple price-alert bots, SimpleFunctions builds causal probability models:

# Create a thesis → auto-generates causal tree
sf create "Iran conflict pushes oil above $130"

# See where markets are mispriced vs your thesis
sf edges

# Stress test: what if one assumption changes?
sf whatif ID --set "n1=0.9" --set "n4=0.5"

Automated Market Making (QuoteEngine v2)

# Paper-trade market making with 2¢ spread
sf quote create KXCPICORE-26APR-T0.3 --paper --spread 2 --size 5

# Full engine with WebSocket, inventory skew, fade-after-fill
sf quoteengine start
sf quoteengine status

Features: multi-layer quoting, inventory-based skew, fade-after-fill, configurable stop loss, thesis-biased mode.

Intent-Based Execution

# Buy when price drops below 28¢
sf intent buy KXRECSSNBER-26 50 --trigger below:28

# Buy at a specific time
sf intent buy TICKER 25 --trigger time:2026-04-15T14:00:00Z

# LLM-evaluated soft condition
sf intent buy TICKER 25 --soft "CPI comes in above consensus"

# Start the runtime daemon to evaluate triggers
sf runtime start --smart

24/7 Autonomous Monitoring

# Configure heartbeat: news every 4h, X scan every 4h, LLM eval every 15min
sf heartbeat ID --news-interval 240 --x-interval 240 --model cheap --budget 5

# Enable closed-loop trading (auto-entry from strategies)
sf heartbeat ID --closed-loop-entry --closed-loop-exit

All Commands (42)

Thesis Management

| Command | Description | |---------|-------------| | sf list | List all theses with confidence scores | | sf get <id> | Full thesis details with causal tree | | sf context [id] | Market snapshot (no id) or thesis context (with id) | | sf create "thesis" | Create thesis with auto-generated causal tree | | sf signal <id> "news" | Inject observation for next evaluation | | sf evaluate <id> | Force deep re-evaluation | | sf augment <id> | Evolve causal tree with new nodes | | sf heartbeat <id> | Configure 24/7 monitoring |

Market Data

| Command | Description | |---------|-------------| | sf scan "keywords" | Search Kalshi + Polymarket by keyword | | sf screen [filters] | Screen 130K markets by IY, CRI, OR, EE, LAS, tau | | sf book <ticker> | Level 2 orderbook with depth | | sf liquidity [topic] | Orderbook liquidity scanner | | sf markets | Traditional markets (SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO, etc.) | | sf query "question" | LLM-enhanced prediction market search | | sf forecast <event> | P50/P75/P90 distribution over time |

World Model

| Command | Description | |---------|-------------| | sf world | Real-time world state (~800 tokens) | | sf world --delta | What changed since last check | | sf world --focus energy,geo | Deep coverage on specific topics | | sf ideas | S&T-style trade recommendations |

Trading & Execution

| Command | Description | |---------|-------------| | sf edges | Top mispricings across all theses | | sf whatif <id> | Scenario analysis with node overrides | | sf backtest <ticker> | Strategy backtesting | | sf intent buy/sell | Conditional order with triggers | | sf buy/sell <ticker> <qty> | Direct order placement | | sf quote create <ticker> | Market making quote | | sf quoteengine start/stop | Automated market making engine | | sf runtime start | Execution daemon for intents |

Portfolio

| Command | Description | |---------|-------------| | sf positions | Kalshi + Polymarket positions | | sf balance | Account balance | | sf orders | Resting orders | | sf fills | Recent trade fills | | sf settlements | Settled contracts with P&L | | sf performance | P&L over time |

MCP Server — Connect to Claude, Cursor, or Any AI Agent

claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp

25 tools for prediction market data, thesis management, trading, and X/Twitter sentiment. Listed on the MCP Registry.

Agent Integration

Every command supports --json for structured output. Pipe into any agent framework:

# LangChain / CrewAI / OpenAI Agents — use as a subprocess
sf scan "recession" --json | your-agent-script

# Or use the dedicated SDK packages
npm i prediction-market-context        # world state + context
npm i prediction-market-edge-detector  # edge scanning
npm i agent-world-awareness            # one-line world injection

Python: pip install simplefunctions-ai

How It Compares

| | SimpleFunctions CLI | Kalshi API + scripts | Other trading bots | |---|---|---|---| | Markets | Kalshi + Polymarket unified | Kalshi only | Usually one venue | | Analysis | Causal trees, 6 indicators, what-if | Raw prices | LLM opinion | | Execution | Intents, quote engine, runtime daemon | Manual orders | Basic buy/sell | | Monitoring | 24/7 heartbeat with news + X + LLM | None | Price alerts only | | Data | 130K markets, Level 2 orderbook | Kalshi only | Limited |

Documentation

Full docs, API reference, and guides: simplefunctions.dev/docs

License

MIT