@quill-io/sensor-polymarket

A World2Agent sensor that watches a Polymarket prediction-market event and emits a market.threshold.crossed signal whenever any outcome's Yes price moves beyond a configured percentage-point threshold over a rolling baseline window.

Built for the workflow where you care about a specific market — leaderboards, race outcomes, model rankings — and want a low-noise heads-up only when consensus actually shifts.

What it does

• Polls Polymarket's Gamma API every interval_seconds (default 600).
• Persists rolling snapshots of every sub-market's Yes price.
• For each outcome, compares current price vs. the snapshot from compare_window_hours ago (default 24).
• If |delta_pp| >= threshold_pp (default 3.0), emits one signal — then sleeps that outcome for alert_cooldown_hours (default 6) so you don't get spammed by oscillation.
• Outcomes priced below min_outcome_price (default 1%) are filtered to avoid noise on dead names.

Signal: market.threshold.crossed

| Field | What's in it | |---|---| | event.summary | One human-readable line: arrow + outcome + delta + baseline→current + lead context + days-to-resolution | | source_event.data | outcome, previous_price, current_price, delta_pp, still_leader, leader_outcome, lead_margin_pp, days_to_resolution, volume_24h_usd, total_volume_usd, market_id | | attachments[0] | Top-5 outcomes baseline→current diff (inline text) | | attachments[1] | Reference URI to the live Polymarket event page |

Example summary:

▼ Anthropic 24h -4.5pp (46.1% → 41.6%) — Which company has best AI model end of June?;
仍居第一，领先优势 9.1pp（vs Google 32.5%）；24h成交 $78,342; 距结算 64 天

Configuration

| Parameter | Type | Default | What it does | |---|---|---|---| | event_slug | string | which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june | The slug after /event/ in a Polymarket URL | | threshold_pp | number | 3.0 | Absolute pp delta that triggers a signal | | compare_window_hours | number | 24 | Rolling baseline window | | alert_cooldown_hours | number | 6 | Per-outcome cooldown after firing | | interval_seconds | number | 600 | Poll interval | | min_outcome_price | number | 0.01 | Skip outcomes below this Yes price |

Install

In a Claude Code session with the @world2agent/claude-code-channel plugin installed:

/world2agent:sensor-add @quill-io/sensor-polymarket

The install flow reads SETUP.md, runs a 3-question Q&A (which event, threshold, cooldown), writes the sensor entry to ~/.world2agent/config.json, and writes a per-user handler skill into your agent runtime's skills directory.

Resolution semantics

The default event resolves on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET — see Polymarket's resolution criteria on the event page. The sensor itself is generic; point it at any Polymarket event.

License

MIT