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@quotient-forecasting/strategy-market-make

v0.4.19

Published

Q-directed passive inventory strategy for Polymarket

Readme

Cassie market-make strategy

market-make supports two distinct execution policies. They do not run together.

Two-sided spread quoting

createTwoSidedMarketMakeConfig() selects two-sided-spread-v1. Discovery uses active Polymarket markets and executable books, without forecast-direction or Q-edge gates.

  • A flat market starts with matched-share YES and NO bids. Equal shares do not mean equal dollar amounts.
  • Held tokens are offered back out through passive SELL orders. Each economic bid/ask has one route, preventing duplicate exits through complementary tokens.
  • Inventory imbalance skews prices; cash, gross inventory, pending orders, and unmatched exposure remain bounded.
  • Quotes are post-only. Routine checks do not cancel unchanged quotes.

The planner is planTwoSidedQuotes. Its defaults are operating choices, not empirically optimized parameters. Complementary orders fill independently; a quoted spread does not guarantee a paired fill or a profit. This follows Polymarket's complementary-token market-making mechanics.

The legacy replay cannot model this policy and rejects two-sided configurations.

The runtime keeps a bounded trading checkpoint in the existing SQLite database: orders, settlement receipts, inventory, activation, and loss-limit state. Books and rejected-candidate telemetry are not stored. An activated deployment resumes after clean startup checks; temporary data outages can recover after cancellation and reconciliation. Operator halts, ambiguous submissions, configuration changes, and loss stops require explicit review.

Normal inventory exits use CLOB sells. Resolution redemption is a separate capability: the SDK redeems both outcomes for a condition, but Deposit Wallet redemption requires relayer authorization absent from the standard trade-only runtime credentials. Resolved inventory pauses new entries and is marked operator-required. Local redemption and reviewed balance reconciliation clear that marker; the runtime does not widen credentials or repeatedly attempt an unauthorized transaction.

Legacy forecast inventory

createMarketMakeConfig() retains q-directed-passive-inventory-v1 for existing configurations. This policy is directional passive inventory, not a symmetric dealer. It consumes normalized Quotient, Gamma, CLOB book, user-order/fill, timer, shock, and loss events; one pure reducer produces passive entry, bounded exit, and cancellation actions. The runtime handles credentials, persistence, risk reservations, reconciliation, and venue execution.

The authoritative research payload is vendored unchanged as strategy.v1.json. Its SHA-256 and source path are recorded in strategy.v1.provenance.json. MARKET_MAKE_PRESET resolves three Cassie-specific decisions without modifying that source artifact:

  • funded strategy capital is the live sizing source by default, with an optional ceiling;
  • renewal requires at least 10pp remaining edge for NO and 20pp for YES;
  • executable selected-token bid depth must be at least $1,000 within 1¢ and $2,500 within 2¢, with 2%/0.8% order participation and 4%/1.6% total-market participation.

Public entry points:

  • MarketMakeConfigSchema, MARKET_MAKE_PRESET, createMarketMakeConfig, effectiveMarketMakeBankrollUsd, marketMakeConfigForBankroll, and marketMakeConfigHash;
  • normalizeCandidate, gateCandidate, buildEntryQuote, allocateCandidates, and evaluateExit;
  • createInitialMarketMakeState and reduceMarketMake for both live and replay processing;
  • MarketMakeReplayBundleSchema and replayMarketMake(bundle, config, { fillModel }) for a single normalized JSON replay bundle.

No module in this package performs network I/O, reads credentials, signs, or submits an order.