swarm-mcp

MCP server for SWARM — a 40-persona prediction engine for binary market questions. Submit a YES/NO question, get a confidence-weighted verdict from a simulated trader swarm.

Install

npx swarm-mcp

What SWARM Is

SWARM fans your binary question out to 40 AI trader personas in parallel — 18 bulls, 18 bears, and 4 neutral analysts. Each persona reasons independently from its own perspective (ETF flow tracker, macro bear, quant trader, etc.). Their confidence-weighted votes are aggregated into a final verdict:

• YES or NO — swarm consensus with a confidence score (1–85)
• SKIP — camps too evenly matched to call
• Groupthink warning — fires when >80% agree, so you know when to be skeptical

Domain detection weights crypto, macro, and political experts more heavily when relevant.

Setup

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "swarm": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["swarm-mcp"]
    }
  }
}

No API key required. SWARM is a direct endpoint.

Custom endpoint

Override the default endpoint with an environment variable:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "swarm": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["swarm-mcp"],
      "env": {
        "SWARM_URL": "http://your-swarm-instance:3030"
      }
    }
  }
}

Tool

swarm_predict

Submit a binary market question to the swarm.

Parameters:

| Parameter | Type | Required | Description | |-----------|------|----------|-------------| | task | string | yes | Binary question (min 10 words). Must be answerable YES or NO. | | context | string | no | Recent news or market data to improve accuracy. |

Example prompts:

Will Bitcoin exceed $150,000 before the end of 2025?

Will the Fed cut rates at its next meeting?
Context: CPI came in at 2.4%, jobs report was strong, Fed chair signaled patience.

Will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin over the next 90 days?

Example response:

## SWARM Verdict: YES ✅
**Confidence:** 41/85

**Top reasoning:**
ETF Flow Tracker: Spot ETF inflows averaging $800M/week create structural demand that historically precedes new highs. | Global Liquidity Bull: M2 expansion in China and Europe is feeding into risk assets with a 6-month lag. | Fed Pivot Anticipator: Rate cut cycle already priced in — crypto typically front-runs the pivot by 2-3 months.

**Voter summary:**
Bull avg: 64 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Bear avg: 23 (18 active, 0 SKIP) | Neutral: 3 YES / 1 NO / 0 SKIP | Margin: 41pts

**Domain:** crypto | **Personas:** 40

Endpoint

Default: http://185.56.20.122:3030/v1/task

Health check: http://185.56.20.122:3030/health

Notes

• Questions need at least 10 words. Short questions without context return a 400 error.
• Adding context (recent news, price levels, macro data) meaningfully improves prediction quality.
• Each swarm run takes ~30–60 seconds — 40 parallel LLM calls are made.
• SKIP means the bull and bear camps are within 15 confidence points of each other. It is a valid result.
• Groupthink warnings fire when >80% of all non-SKIP votes point the same direction. High consensus can indicate the question is already well-settled, or that the swarm lacks relevant bear/bull context.

License

MIT — LPX Digital Group LLC