Polymarket Signals MCP

Scan Polymarket prediction markets for trading signals — fade opportunities, arbitrage gaps, and resolution calendars. Works out of the box with no API keys required.

What it does

| Tool | Description | |------|-------------| | scan_fade_opportunities | Rank all active markets by fade score — find where crowds over-bet one side | | scan_arb_gaps | Find YES+NO combined prices below $1.00 (theoretical free money) | | get_resolution_calendar | Markets resolving in the next 1-48 hours with late-stage signals | | get_market_detail | Deep dive: prices, order book snapshot, signals for one market | | scan_by_category | Filter signals by category (crypto, politics, sports, macro, etc.) | | get_market_stats | Daily briefing: total markets, volume, signal count |

The Edge

Fade strategy: When a market prices YES at $0.80 and NO at $0.15, the crowd is over-confident in YES. The combined price ($0.95) is below $1.00, and the crowd bias creates edge for betting NO. This server quantifies that edge with a 0-100 score.

Arb gaps: YES + NO < $1.00 means you can buy both sides and collect the difference at resolution. Taker fee is ~1.56% per side (3.12% round trip), so only gaps above 3.12% are profitable. This server finds them automatically.

Resolution calendar: Markets in their final 1-4 hours often see momentum chasers push prices past fair value, creating mean-reversion opportunities.

Fade Score Interpretation

| Score | Signal | |-------|--------| | 80-100 | Strong — crowd significantly one-sided, strong edge for other side | | 60-79 | Moderate — worth monitoring | | 40-59 | Weak — possible edge but verify with news | | < 40 | No signal |

Installation

Claude Desktop

Add to your claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "polymarket-signals": {
      "command": "node",
      "args": ["/path/to/polymarket-signals-mcp/index.js"]
    }
  }
}

Claude Code (CLI)

claude mcp add polymarket-signals node /path/to/polymarket-signals-mcp/index.js

Requirements

• Node.js 18+
• No API keys required — uses Polymarket's public CLOB API

Quick start

git clone <repo>
cd polymarket-signals-mcp
npm install
node index.js  # MCP server runs on stdio

Example prompts

Scan for fade opportunities in crypto markets with score above 70
Find arb gaps above 3% on Polymarket
What markets are resolving in the next 6 hours?
Get me a detailed breakdown of the BTC-100k market

Limitations

• Fade signals are based on crowd bias detection — not fundamental analysis
• Taker fees (1.56%/side) make small arb gaps unprofitable — use maker orders where possible
• Past performance of individual signals not guaranteed
• Always verify with independent research before trading

License

MIT