Event Contract Builder

Event Contract Builder is the open-source npm package and plugin interface for Bleavit Foresight, a ChatGPT plugin for creating forecast specifications. The package name remains event-contract-builder; its public schemas and client-visible interface are the ones used by Foresight.

The plugin drafts selectable forecast questions, precise definitions, independent resolution sources, resolution criteria, historical context, and optional recent news. Each stage remains pending until the user explicitly approves it. Probability monitoring is planned; it is not part of the current workflow.

Third-party workflow attributions and license notices are listed in THIRD_PARTY_LICENSES.md.

Use the Foresight TypeScript package

Install the package from npm:

npm install event-contract-builder

The package root exports Foresight schemas, types, structural validation, client-visible tool descriptors, and server instructions. The same API is also available from the event-contract-builder/foresight subpath.

import {
  DraftUnit,
  foresightTools,
  type DraftUnitT,
} from "event-contract-builder";

const draft: DraftUnitT = {
  question: "Will CPI year-over-year inflation exceed 3 percent in June 2027?",
};

const validatedDraft = DraftUnit.parse(draft);
const submitQuestionsTool = foresightTools.submit_drafted_questions;

console.log(validatedDraft.question);
console.log(submitQuestionsTool.title);

The npm package describes and validates the public interface. It does not include tool handlers, workflow state, or the hosted service. Approved specifications are retrieved through the public MCP interface.

Forecast workflow

The workflow is: draft questions, select a unit, define terms, choose resolution sources, define resolution criteria, add background information, and optionally add recent news. reduce-semantic-risk supports focused interpretation audits.

Question drafting in Bleavit Foresight is informed by Metaculus’s question-writing guidance.

Instruction ownership is deliberately split to avoid duplicate maintenance:

• src/foresight/instructions.md owns cross-stage state, language, rendering, approval, and export conventions.
• Each skills/*/SKILL.md is a short workflow entry point.
• Each skill reference owns that stage's semantic rules and detailed format.
• src/foresight/tools.ts exposes concise tool intent and machine-enforced schemas; it does not restate skill procedures.

Change a rule at its owning layer rather than copying it into another one.

Hosted service and repository boundary

This repository contains the open-source Foresight package, plugin assets, seven skills, and client-visible MCP interface. The hosted Bleavit Foresight service provides MCP execution, workflow state, rendering, and future monitoring services. Those operational components are not included here. See the repository boundary for details.

The public package builds and tests independently:

bun install
bun run test
bun run check

The plugin ID is bleavit-foresight; the npm package remains event-contract-builder. The plugin display name is Bleavit Foresight. The open-source repository remains usable for inspecting, adapting, and implementing the published interface; service access and operational components are provided separately.

Install or refresh the local plugin

For a local ChatGPT app mapping, copy the example and replace its placeholder:

cp .app.example.json .app.json

.app.json stays ignored; it identifies your own ChatGPT connection. Bun and the Codex CLI are required for refresh and check. The --setup command also requires the plugin-creator skill; set CODEX_PLUGIN_CREATOR if it is installed somewhere other than $CODEX_HOME/skills/.system/plugin-creator (default ~/.codex).

# First setup, or repair a missing personal-marketplace source link:
bun run refresh:plugin --setup

# After changing skills or plugin metadata:
bun run refresh:plugin

# Read-only source verification:
bun run refresh:plugin --check

Setup uses the plugin-creator marketplace helper and creates a source link to this checkout. Refresh refuses to reinstall an entry that points elsewhere. After installation it removes development files from the newly created Codex cache, retaining only plugin assets and the intentional local app mapping. Start a new Codex task after refreshing to load the updated plugin.

For local development, connect the plugin to an MCP server that implements the public interface. For the hosted Bleavit Foresight service, use the endpoint and authentication method provided with your service access. Refresh the ChatGPT connection after tool descriptions or schemas change; the Codex refresh command does not update ChatGPT's connection metadata.

Package the plugin

bun run package:plugin

This creates out/bleavit-foresight.zip and an unpacked plugin directory from an explicit asset allowlist. The archive includes the skills, manifest, MCP configuration and license notices, including THIRD_PARTY_LICENSES.md. It excludes the library build, development files and local app mapping. Its manifest omits the local apps reference. By default, its MCP configuration points to https://api.foresight.bleavit.com/mcp; override this for another environment with bun run package:plugin -- --mcp-url https://your-endpoint.example/mcp. The tracked .mcp.json remains pointed at localhost for local development. This command does not publish anything.

Product website

The static product site lives in site/ and is intended for Cloudflare Pages at https://foresight.bleavit.com. The MCP Worker uses the separate host https://api.foresight.bleavit.com/mcp. Keep the product overview and public support and policy pages in the site; do not include Worker secrets or D1 configuration there.

Disclaimer

See DISCLAIMER.md for important information about the legal and regulatory status of forecast specifications produced with this tooling.

License

Copyright © 2026 Christopher Maximilian Altmann. Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0.