polly-gamba

Signal propagation arbitrage: Coinbase price move → Polymarket bet, before the humans do.

┌─────────────────┐    signal    ┌───────────────────┐    match    ┌──────────────────┐
│  Coinbase WS    │ ──────────→  │   Signal Router   │ ─────────→  │  Polymarket CLOB │
│  BTC/ETH ticker │              │   (Claude brain)  │             │  Order execution │
└─────────────────┘              └───────────────────┘             └──────────────────┘
       ↑                                  ↑                                 ↑
  0.5% move in                    keyword + heuristic              dry-run by default
    60s window                    market matching                  (set API key for live)

Why this works

Human reaction time from seeing a BTC pump on Coinbase to placing a Polymarket bet: 5–30 minutes.

That's the edge. We don't front-run algos — we front-run people. Crypto price signal → find correlated prediction markets → place before the crowd arrives.

News doesn't matter. Price signal does.

Architecture

| Component | File | Purpose | |---|---|---| | Coinbase WS | src/signals/coinbase-ws.ts | Real-time BTC/ETH ticker, threshold detection | | Gamma API | src/markets/gamma.ts | Fetch active Polymarket markets, 10-min cache | | CLOB API | src/markets/clob.ts | Orderbook reads, price queries, order placement | | MCP Server | src/mcp/server.ts | Polymarket tools for Claude Code integration | | Main loop | src/index.ts | Orchestration, latency tracking, dry-run |

Quick start

npm install

# Run the signal → match → execute pipeline (dry-run mode)
npx ts-node src/index.ts

# Run as MCP server (for Claude Code)
npx ts-node src/mcp/server.ts

# Run smoke tests
npm test

Signal detection

coinbase-ws.ts connects to Coinbase Advanced Trade WebSocket (no auth required):

• Subscribes to ticker channel for BTC-USD and ETH-USD
• Maintains a 60-second rolling price window
• Fires a PriceSignal when price moves ≥ 0.5% within the window

interface PriceSignal {
  asset: 'BTC' | 'ETH'
  direction: 'up' | 'down'
  pct_change: number    // e.g. 0.0213 for +2.13%
  price: number         // current USD price
  window_secs: number   // actual window duration
  signal_ts: number     // Date.now() at detection
}

Market matching

On signal, the system:

1. Fetches active Polymarket markets (Gamma API, cached 10 min)
2. Filters for volume > $10k, liquidity > $1k
3. Keyword-matches market questions against the signal asset
4. Logs matched markets + latency breakdown

MCP Tools (Claude integration)

Add to ~/.claude/claude_desktop_config.json:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "polymarket": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["ts-node", "/path/to/polly-gamba/src/mcp/server.ts"]
    }
  }
}

Available tools:

• list_markets — fetch active markets with optional keyword filter
• get_orderbook — CLOB orderbook for a token
• get_market_price — buy/sell price (0–1 = probability)
• assess_signal — find markets affected by a price signal
• place_order — place order (dry-run default)

Latency tracking

Every signal logs:

signal_ts      → when the price move was detected
match_ts       → when market matching completed
execute_ts     → when dry-run/order was logged

Target: signal → execute in < 500ms.

Config

| Env var | Required | Description | |---|---|---| | POLYMARKET_API_KEY | No (for now) | CLOB API key for live order placement |

Dry-run mode

All order placement is dry-run by default — logs WOULD PLACE ORDER: ... without touching the CLOB. Set dry_run: false and POLYMARKET_API_KEY for live execution.

Next steps

1. CLOB auth — implement EIP-712 L1 + L2 API key header signing
2. Position sizing — Kelly criterion on signal strength × market liquidity
3. Redis signal bus — decouple signal detection from execution
4. Backtesting — replay historical Coinbase ticks against historical Polymarket prices
5. Claude reasoning — pipe signals through Claude for semantic market scoring

Build

npm run build   # tsc → dist/
npm test        # smoke tests (live API, read-only)