Probable Markets Trading Skill

An OpenClaw Skill that wraps the Probable Markets prediction market on BNB Chain (BSC). Enables agents to onboard wallets, discover markets, view orderbooks, place/cancel orders, track positions, and generate audit reports.

Built on top of opinion_clob_sdk — the official Probable Markets / Opinion Labs Python SDK.

Features

• One-command onboarding — auto-generates API key via L1 EIP-712 auth
• Full trading lifecycle — place/cancel limit & market orders, split/merge/redeem
• Safety by default — dry-run mode, --confirm required for all transactions, secret masking
• Audit logging — every action logged to local SQLite
• Real-time streaming — WebSocket orderbook & execution report subscriptions
• Agent-native — all output as structured JSON (ActionResult envelope)

Quick Start

# 1. Install dependencies
pip install opinion_clob_sdk websockets httpx

# 2. Set your private key
export PROB_PRIVATE_KEY="0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY"
export PROB_RPC_URL="https://bsc-dataseed.binance.org"

# 3. Register on probable.markets (connect wallet), then set proxy wallet
export PROB_MULTI_SIG_ADDR="0xYOUR_PROXY_WALLET"

# 4. Auto-generate API key
python3 scripts/prob.py onboard --confirm --json

# 5. Enable trading approvals (on-chain)
python3 scripts/prob.py setup --confirm --json

# 6. Start trading
python3 scripts/prob.py market list --status activated --json
python3 scripts/prob.py book <token_id> --json
python3 scripts/prob.py order place --market-id <M> --token-id <T> --side BUY --price 0.55 --amount 100 --confirm --json

CLI Commands

prob.py config {show,init}              # Configuration management
prob.py doctor                          # Health check
prob.py onboard [--confirm]             # Generate API key (L1 auth)
prob.py setup [--confirm]               # Enable trading (on-chain approvals)

prob.py market {list,get,search}        # Market discovery
prob.py book <token_id>                 # Orderbook snapshot
prob.py price <token_id>                # Latest price
prob.py history <token_id>              # Price history
prob.py fee-rates <token_id>            # Fee rates

prob.py order {place,get,list,cancel,cancel-all}   # Order management
prob.py positions [--market-id M]       # My positions
prob.py trades [--market-id M]          # My trades
prob.py balance                         # My balances

prob.py split --market-id M --amount A [--confirm]   # Split collateral
prob.py merge --market-id M --amount A [--confirm]   # Merge tokens
prob.py redeem --market-id M [--confirm]             # Redeem resolved

prob.py ws book <token_id> [--duration N]   # Stream orderbook
prob.py ws user [--duration N]              # Stream execution reports
prob.py report daily [--format json|markdown|both]   # Trading report

Global flags: --json (JSON output), --confirm (execute), --dry-run (preview)

Project Structure

marketskill/
├── SKILL.md                 # OpenClaw skill definition
├── scripts/
│   ├── prob.py              # CLI entry point
│   └── lib/
│       ├── config.py        # Env var + config file loading
│       ├── client_wrapper.py # Wraps opinion_clob_sdk.Client
│       ├── onboard.py       # L1 auth + API key generation
│       ├── safety.py        # Dry-run, confirmation, secret masking
│       ├── db.py            # SQLite audit log + cache
│       ├── ws_client.py     # WebSocket client
│       └── report.py        # Daily report generator
├── schemas/                 # JSON schemas (config, order intent, output)
├── references/              # API, WebSocket, and onboarding docs
└── examples/                # Example interactions

Safety Model

| Feature | Behavior | |---------|----------| | Default mode | Dry-run — shows what would happen without executing | | Transactions | Require --confirm flag (orders, cancel, split, merge, redeem, setup) | | Secrets | Private keys and API secrets masked in all output | | Audit | Every action logged to .probable/probable.db (SQLite) | | Output | Standardized JSON envelope with success, error, request_id, timestamp |

Key Contracts (BSC Mainnet)

| Contract | Address | |----------|---------| | ConditionalTokens | 0xAD1a38cEc043e70E83a3eC30443dB285ED10D774 | | MultiSend | 0x998739BFdAAdde7C933B942a68053933098f9EDa | | FeeManager | 0xC9063Dc52dEEfb518E5b6634A6b8D624bc5d7c36 |

Requirements

• Python 3.10+
• opinion_clob_sdk (v0.4.3+)
• websockets, httpx
• BNB Chain wallet with BNB (gas) and USDT (trading)

License

MIT