TeleKash MCP Server

Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.

What is this?

TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science.

What makes it different:

• Multi-source — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange
• Self-calibrating — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking
• Universal Payment Layer — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON
• 28 tools — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission

Quick Install

npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Code

claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server

Claude Desktop / Cursor

Add to your MCP configuration file:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "telekash-oracle": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["telekash-mcp-server"]
    }
  }
}

Tools

28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets.

Intelligence

| Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------- | | get_probability | Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score | Free | | list_markets | Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting | Free | | search_markets | Full-text search across 4,500+ markets | Free | | get_history | Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d | Free | | get_sentiment | AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter | Free | | get_market_stats | Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources | Free | | get_trending | Markets with the biggest probability swings | Free | | compare_sources | Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison | Calibration |

Analytics

| Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- | | detect_arbitrage | Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals | Calibration | | get_signal | Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict | Calibration | | get_divergences | Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK) | Calibration | | get_edge | Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification | Calibration | | track_prediction | Record predictions for accuracy tracking | Calibration | | get_performance | Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis | Calibration |

Trading

| Tool | What it does | Tier | | ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- | | execute_trade | Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools | Edge | | get_order_status | Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders | Edge | | cancel_order | Cancel pending or submitted broker orders | Edge | | get_pool_status | Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds | Edge | | get_agent_balance | Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count | Edge | | get_resolution_status | Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels | Edge | | create_market | Create custom binary prediction markets | Edge | | export_data | Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage | Edge |

Admin

| Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- | | generate_api_key | Generate a free API key (no signup required) | Free | | get_usage | Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status | Free | | register_alert | Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes | Edge | | list_alerts | List active webhook alerts with delivery stats | Edge | | delete_alert | Delete a webhook alert | Edge | | get_health | System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status | Free |

Pricing

Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key.

| Tier | Cost | Queries/Day | What you get | | --------------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | Free | $0 | 100 | Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health | | Calibration | $0.01/query | 1,000 | + Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking | | Edge | $0.05/query | Unlimited | + Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation |

Revenue model

| Stream | Rate | Description | | -------------------- | -------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | | Intelligence queries | $0 - $0.05/query | Real-time probability, sentiment, signals | | Broker trades | 1% commission | Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket | | Native pool trades | 5% fee at resolution | Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users |

Universal Payment Layer

Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments.

| Rail | Network | Asset | Fee | | ------------------- | --------------------- | ----------------- | --------- | | x402 (Coinbase) | Base, Polygon, Solana | USDC | Free (0%) | | Stripe MPP | Fiat | USD (cards, bank) | 2.9% | | TON | TON mainnet | TON | Free (0%) |

// Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed
const result = await client.callTool({
  name: "get_signal",
  arguments: {
    query: "Bitcoin 200K",
    x402_payment: {
      tx_hash: "0xabc...",
      network: "base",
      rail: "x402",
    },
  },
});

Get an API key

# Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup)
# Call the generate_api_key tool

# Or via Telegram
# Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey

Example

Connect to the server and query a market probability:

import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js";
import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js";

const transport = new StdioClientTransport({
  command: "npx",
  args: ["telekash-mcp-server"],
});

const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" });
await client.connect(transport);

// Get probability for a market
const result = await client.callTool({
  name: "get_probability",
  arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" },
});

console.log(result.content);
// => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... }

More examples in the examples/ directory:

• quick-start.ts -- Connect, search, get probabilities
• arbitrage-scanner.ts -- Find cross-source mispricings
• portfolio-scanner.ts -- Scan markets and build a ranked portfolio
• market-monitor.ts -- Watch a market and log probability changes

Environment Variables

The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access:

SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co
SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key
TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key              # Optional: enables paid tiers
TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x...             # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments
TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ...                 # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments
STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_...                   # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments
X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator  # Default: Coinbase facilitator

Data Sources

| Source | Type | Sync Frequency | | ---------- | -------------------------- | ---------------- | | Kalshi | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Every 15 minutes | | Polymarket | Crypto-native exchange | Every hour |

All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science.

Links

• npm
• GitHub
• Agent Card
• A2A Protocol
• TeleKash Bot

License

MIT