torch-prediction-market-kit

autonomous vault-based prediction market bot for Torch Market on Solana. built on torchsdk v3.7.22.

each prediction market is a Torch token — the bonding curve provides price discovery, the treasury accumulates value from trading fees, and the vault manages the bot's positions. the agent keypair is generated in-process (disposable, holds nothing of value). all SOL routes through the vault.

how it works

1. create — bot launches a torch token for a prediction question
2. seed — bot buys initial tokens via vault to provide starting liquidity
3. trade — users buy the token to bet YES (price up), sell to bet NO (price down)
4. monitor — bot tracks price, volume, and holders as market signals
5. resolve — at deadline, bot checks oracle and records outcome

setup

pnpm install
pnpm build

usage

VAULT_CREATOR=<pubkey> SOLANA_RPC_URL=<rpc> npx tsx src/index.ts

or via npm:

npm install [email protected]
VAULT_CREATOR=<pubkey> SOLANA_RPC_URL=<rpc> npx torch-prediction-market-bot

env vars

| Variable | Required | Default | Description | |----------|----------|---------|-------------| | SOLANA_RPC_URL | yes | — | Solana RPC endpoint (fallback: RPC_URL) | | VAULT_CREATOR | yes | — | Vault creator pubkey | | SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | no | — | Disposable controller keypair (base58 or byte array). If omitted, generates fresh keypair on startup (recommended) | | SCAN_INTERVAL_MS | no | 60000 | Cycle interval in ms (min 5000) | | LOG_LEVEL | no | info | debug / info / warn / error | | MARKETS_PATH | no | ./markets.json | Path to market definitions |

markets.json

[
  {
    "id": "sol-200-mar",
    "question": "Will SOL be above $200 by March 1, 2026?",
    "symbol": "SOL200M",
    "name": "SOL Above 200 March",
    "oracle": {
      "type": "price_feed",
      "asset": "solana",
      "condition": "above",
      "target": 200
    },
    "deadline": 1740787200,
    "initialLiquidityLamports": 100000000,
    "metadataUri": "https://arweave.net/placeholder"
  }
]

dependencies

| Package | Version | Purpose | |---------|---------|---------| | @solana/web3.js | 1.98.4 | Solana RPC, keypair, transaction | | torchsdk | 3.7.22 | Token queries, token creation, buy builder, vault queries |

testing

requires Surfpool running a mainnet fork:

surfpool start --network mainnet --no-tui
pnpm test

links

• torch market
• torchsdk (npm)
• torchsdk (source)
• clawhub skill
• program id: 8hbUkonssSEEtkqzwM7ZcZrD9evacM92TcWSooVF4BeT

license

MIT